On Tuesday, October 1, 2024, the SOSS Organization announced the results of the Kurdistan Parliamentary Election Survey, with the attendance of distinguished guests, including government officials, university professors, data and information experts, and a number of journalists.

Overview

From August 21 to September 15, 2024, the Sard Organization for Social Development (known as the Statistics Organization for Society Support, SOSS) conducted a survey on the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) parliamentary elections in all four provinces, including districts, subdistricts, and villages. Data was collected from eligible voters for this parliamentary election.

Based on a statistical formula applied to the population size of 2,899,578 voters, with a 2% margin of error, 2,236 voters participated in the survey through online platforms and face-to-face interviews using the KoboToolbox platform. The data analysis employed a descriptive methodology to interpret participants’ responses, ensuring accurate and meaningful conclusions for the concerned stakeholders.

Objective

The survey aims to measure voters’ opinions across all four provinces of the Kurdistan Region on key election issues and assess the level of support for candidates and political parties. The survey results will provide a clear picture of voter trends and expectations ahead of the elections scheduled for October 20, 2024.

Results

According to the survey results, voter turnout in this election is expected to be higher than in previous years, as the current situation differs from previous rounds. Regarding political parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (PDK) had the highest voter turnout in the last elections, and it should aim to maintain or increase its votes, especially with the emergence of new parties and movements. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), whose votes have been declining in past elections, saw a slight increase in the last round and should work on improving its voter base in this round.

Each political party seems to have a strong voter base in one or more provinces, while facing significant competition in this parliamentary election. Notably, new political entities, such as the Halwest Movement and the Gel Front, have entered the political race, but they are unlikely to win many seats in this round. Meanwhile, the Gorran Movement is expected to secure very few votes in this election, based on data from the previous two election rounds and current survey data. Islamic parties are expected to retain their typical share of the vote, with the Kurdistan Justice Group (Komali Dadgari) leading among them.

Overall, the elections will have a significant impact on improving the living conditions of citizens around the Kurdistan Region, but the survey data revealed several key voter sentiments regarding the elections. For instance, many perceive that participation in the elections has little effect on their daily lives, while others express doubts about the transparency of the elections and feel disillusioned with the candidates. The report recommends that political leaders and election committee members make strong efforts to enhance election transparency to ensure fairness in the eyes of the public. Government officials should also focus on improving public services and establishing new services to strengthen relationships with citizens.

KRG’s Data on Previous Parliamentary Election Rounds

The results of the sixth session of the Kurdistan Parliament according to the survey conducted by our organization in all four provinces of the Kurdistan Region

For more information on the full report, please click on the following link:

Final Report Results | Download